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Fact check: Claims swirling on California gas prices

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~ SACRAMENTO - As gas prices continue to be a hot topic in California, there are many claims being made about potential increases. However, a recent fact check has revealed that these claims are largely disingenuous and misleading.

According to a 2024 report, California drivers rank 45th in the nation for gasoline consumption and 21st in spending on gasoline per capita. This is due to major improvements in fuel efficiency. Additionally, experts have stated that Trump's tariffs and policies impacting the price of crude oil will have a much larger impact on gas prices than any state policy.

Despite this information, there has been a lot of speculation about California gas prices, fueled by misinformation from Republican lawmakers and the oil industry. In order to set the record straight, here are the facts:

CLAIM: Gas prices will increase by 65 cents or higher on July 1.

FALSE. While there are two separate changes expected to affect fuel prices around July 1, neither of them will result in such a drastic increase.

The first change is a legislatively mandated and voter-approved gas tax increase of 1.6 cents per gallon. This was enacted by the Legislature in 2017 to fund road repairs and was overwhelmingly approved by voters in 2018 when they rejected a repeal attempt.

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The second change is related to updates to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which is not a tax but rather a program aimed at reducing carbon emissions from transportation fuels. Experts at UC Davis estimate that this could result in an increase of only 5 to 8 cents per gallon – far below the exaggerated claim of 65 cents.

CLAIM: Gas prices could top $8 a gallon by next year.

FALSE. This claim has been widely reported in the media but has been debunked as being based on an unscientific analysis with ties to the oil industry. The author provides no evidence to support their claim and relies on vague references to models with no details. Other experts, such as Stanford economists, have stated that recent refinery announcements are unlikely to have a significant impact on gas prices.

In fact, studies have shown that the LCFS program is estimated to reduce fuel costs for Californians by 42% per mile by 2045, resulting in savings of over $20 billion in gasoline costs every year.

It is important to correct the record and dispel these false claims, especially as Republican lawmakers in Congress recently echoed them in a letter. They got it wrong – view the full-size correction here.

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In other news, Governor Newsom has announced that $135 million is available for wildfire prevention grants. This comes at a crucial time as President Trump's policies are putting a strain on resources needed to protect communities from catastrophic wildfires.

Additionally, California is investing $15 million through the Regional Investment Initiative to support Native American tribal partners in creating jobs and developing high-paying careers.

First Partner Jennifer Newsom has also launched her annual Book Club, featuring great kids' reads curated by librarians across California. This initiative also includes investments to support library community programming and celebrates libraries as community treasures open to all Californians.

As gas prices continue to be a topic of concern for many Californians, it is important to rely on accurate information and not be swayed by misinformation. The truth is that gas prices will not come anywhere close to increasing by 65 cents and there are measures being taken to address potential increases.

Filed Under: Government, State
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