THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. - TelAve -- In recognition of their outstanding accuracy in forecasting United States' home prices, California Lutheran University economists Matthew Fienup, Ph.D., and Dan Hamilton, Ph.D., received the 2024 Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (formerly known as the Zillow and Case-Shiller Home Price Expectations Surveys). This is the fourth time in six years that Fienup and Hamilton, both of Cal Lutheran's Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF), have received the prestigious national award. They previously were honored with three consecutive awards, from 2019 to 2021.

CERF has participated in the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations survey since it was launched in 2010 by Yale professor and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.

"Our goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state-of-the-art forecasting tools reveal," said Fienup, CERF executive director. "We see our role as calling 'balls and strikes,' rather than advocating for a preferred outcome."

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CERF's two-year-ahead forecast of 2024 home prices was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasters in the survey. CERF's three-year-ahead forecast was the third most accurate, and their one-year-ahead forecast was fifth. Other top finishers include Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, Denis Egin of the International Monetary Fund, Susan Wachter of the Wharton School and Carlos Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

"The survey leverages a large community of professional forecasters to provide forward guidance on home prices, which in turn, impact household spending, household and investor psychology and financial markets," said Hamilton.

Pulsenomics, an independent research and index product development firm, quarterly surveys a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States to create the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey.

https://www.callutheran.edu/